It’s been a busy year in politics, with some important elections. Jamie Pow picks out five themes from some of 2017’s most striking contests.

 

Polarisation

Votes received by parties in the Northern Ireland Assembly elections of 2016 (left) and 2017 (right)

For the first time in an election to the Northern Ireland Assembly, voter participation increased. In May 2016, 700,000 citizens cast a ballot; ten months later, an additional 100,000 voters headed to a polling station. Sinn Féin was the main beneficiary of this surge in turnout, having successfully mobilised voters on Irish language rights and equality issues.

It managed to turn the RHI scandal into a much deeper issue, portraying the DUP as arrogant and contemptuous towards voters – particularly those in the nationalist community. Who knows whether this effort would have been as successful without Arlene Foster’s “crocodile” comments. At the same time, most unionist voters stuck with the DUP. Despite widespread anger over the DUP’s handling of the RHI issue, the party’s warning over Sinn Féin’s “radical republican agenda” ensured, in spite of everything, that the DUP remained the largest party.

This was a highly polarising contest; with neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin incentivised to make concessions, and as the smaller parties struggle to reposition themselves, it goes to show that elections can result in more questions than answers.

 

Protest

2016 saw a populist wave carry the UK towards the exit door of the EU and Donald Trump towards the entrance of the White House. The French presidential election illustrated the limits of that wave.

Candidate with the most votes by department; first and second rounds. Source: Mélencron

But make no mistake: French voters were in no mood to endorse the status quo or reward the establishment. President Hollande was the first incumbent since the war not to seek re-election. Nicolas Sarkozy tried to make a political comeback, but finished in (a deeply embarrassing) third place in his party’s primary contest.

Neither of France’s two main political parties made it to the second round (when no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates compete in a final run-off). The Socialist candidate, Benoît Hamon, didn’t win a single department (administrative region) in the first round. Franciois Fillon, the former prime minister dogged by embezzlement allegations, won just nine out of 101.

Enter the outsiders. Marine Le Pen of the Front National was hardly a new name, but her place in the second round brought her far-right party closer to the mainstream than many could stomach. Emmanuel Macron decisively defeated her, securing two-thirds of the final vote share. But with a high rate of abstentions, it would be a step too far to interpret Macron’s victory as a resounding endorsement for his vision of neoliberal globalism; after a bumpy start, the new president has a lot to prove if he is to avoid becoming the next victim of French voters’ protest.

 

Paradox

If Theresa May didn’t call an election in 2017, historians would have been puzzled. Riding high in the polls, inheriting a slim parliamentary majority, and facing a divided opposition, it was her chance to claim a fresh mandate and assert her authority.

Polling trends in the month before the 2017 general election. Source: Northern Slant

As political scientist Philip Cowley has pointed out, calling the election was not Theresa May’s mistake; it was how she led the subsequent campaign that was nothing short of disastrous. Neither the U-turn on social care costs nor the refusal to participate in TV debates projected strength or stability. In the meantime, Jeremy Corbyn finally found his stride. With a platform that energised young people and (temporarily) united the party, Labour became seen as a viable alternative – and the polls reflected it.

“Strong and stable” wasn’t the only paradox of this year’s general election. Analysis of voting behaviour has revealed the huge Brexit factor. As Ed Fieldhouse and Chris Prosser note, by June 2017 “the Brexit debate was not so much about whether or not to leave or remain, but about how to leave the EU.” Voters who prioritised continued access to the Single Market were significantly more likely to vote for Labour; those who prioritised immigration controls were much more likely to vote Conservative. In other words, “the Tories were the party of hard Brexit whilst Labour was the party of soft Brexit.”

This begs the question: since the election, why has the Labour Party been so reluctant to advocate a distinct vision for a post-Brexit Britain?

 

Predicament

“I have spent an unending amount of time contemplating this, as to stand as a candidate for a fourth time after 11 years in power is anything other than a trivial decision, neither for the country, for the party, nor for me,” Angela Merkel told journalists when she announced her intention to run again.

Seats won by each party in the 2017 German federal election (grey denotes losses). No party is close to securing a majority of 355 seats. Source: Northern Slant

Nothing Angela Merkel does is by accident; her methodical, reflective approach to decision-making has served her well as one of the longest-serving, most experienced world leaders. The impressionist Tracey Ullman has depicted the German chancellor as repeatedly stepping up to the mark, having to provide leadership and solutions to an endless string of crises.

However, September’s federal election arguably presents Angela Merkel with her biggest challenge yet. Her party, the CDU/CSU, lost 65 seats in the Bundestag, while her centre-left coalition partner, the SPD, lost 40. The far-right AfD is now the third-largest party, having made gains largely in response to Merkel’s welcoming position toward refugees.

The arithmetic of government formation is daunting. It had been expected that the CDU/CSU would enter a ‘Jamaica Coalition’ with the Greens and liberal FDP (so-called because the three parties’ colours mirror the Jamaican flag), but the FDP threw a spanner in the works in November when it formally withdrew from coalition talks.

That leaves three options: another grand coalition with the SPD, a minority CDU/CSU government, or a fresh election. None of the options are particularly attractive: there is little appetite for another election, a minority government could be unstable and short-lived, and the SPD’s return to government would leave the AfD as Germany’s official opposition. When talks with the SPD commence in the new year, Angela Merkel’s leadership will be on the line.

 

Pantomime

Last November, Donald Trump won Alabama with 62% of the vote; Hillary Clinton trailed on just 34%. With those kind of numbers, you would have expected the Republicans to have easily defended their Senate seat in December’s special election. They didn’t.

To understand why Doug Jones was the first Democrat to be elected to represent Alabama in the Senate in a quarter of a century, you have to first look at his opponent. Roy Moore, an ultra-conservative former judge, made many senior Republicans nervous – and that was before a series of allegations emerged accusing Moore of sexual assault against minors.

Senator John McCain called on Moore to “immediately step aside” from the race. President Trump, meanwhile, endorsed him.

The racial divide in Alabama’s Senate election. Source: Eddison Research/Washington Post

The President’s endorsement didn’t help: Jones won 670,000 votes to Moore’s 650,000 – a winning margin of 1.7%. The near-unanimous support for the Democrat from Alabama’s African-American community signalled a sharp racial divide. As an Eddison Research exit poll shows, more than two-thirds of white voters (constituting two-thirds of the electorate) supported Moore.

The polarised climate of American politics shows no signs of abating anytime soon. The fact that a candidate as extreme as Roy Moore could be nominated by a major party for federal office, let alone the fact that partisanship overrode many voters’ concern over the serious allegations against him, exposes a country deeply divided over its identity and direction. However, for all its idiosyncrasies, this election reminds us that no political alignment is set in stone.

 

More from Northern Slant in 2017

On Northern Ireland politics:

On the French presidential election:

On the UK general election:

On German politics:

On the Alabama Senate election:

Also published on Medium.