After months of back-and-forth, of ‘will they, won’t they’ debates, Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party have all agreed upon and ratified a programme for government (or ‘PfG’). It represents a momentous shift in Irish politics, with the two ‘old enemies’ in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, seen by some as only really being divided by who took what side in the Irish Civil War, now officially in coalition together alongside the much smaller Greens. 

The fact that party members ratified the PfG – most especially those of the Green Party – came as something of a shock to some political commentators. Aside from just how large the pro-government majority was, many of the Greens’ most prominent voices, such as Hazel Chu and Saoirse McHugh, were very vocal in their opposition. Such vocal opposition was mirrored on the other side of the border, with Clare Bailey and the vast majority of NI party members also being against going into government with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Once again, it seems the old adage of ‘Twitter is not real life’ holds true.

Risks and opportunities

The PfG itself is something of a mixed bag, but there’s no denying that there are ‘Green fingerprints’ all over it. The transport section in particular – where government spending will supposedly favour public transport over roads – is clear evidence of this, as is the language surrounding the pursuit of a ‘Green New Deal’ and ‘wellness measurements’. Concerns remain, however. Those opposed to the deal cited the frequent use of ‘examine’ and ‘review’ throughout the document, seeing this as Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil not committing to delivery and instead wanting a return to the austerity seen following the bank bailout. 

Looking to the opposition, too, it cannot be denied that the formation of this government represents a momentous shift in the politics across Ireland. Aside from the aforementioned civil war divide being bridged, for the first time since Tom Johnson’s Labour in 1921, the make-up of the opposition the Dáil will be almost entirely left-wing. In spite of their rhetoric surrounding how this isn’t the ‘people’s government’, one can’t help but feel that this is in some ways an ideal outcome for Sinn Féin in particular. They’re back in government in Stormont, they’re the largest opposition party in the Dáil, and any government misstep will be pounced upon. One suspects that the Greens in particular are going to be an easy target in the same way Labour were between 2011 and 2016. 

A Shared Ireland?

What the PfG means for North-South relations is also worth examining. Aside from commitments to pursue shared infrastructure projects and ensure an all-island approach to economic issues in the wake of Brexit and Covid-19, the first point of the “Shared Island” section notes the following: The new government will “establish a Unit within the Department of An Taoiseach to work towards a consensus on a shared island. This unit will examine the political, social, economic and cultural considerations underpinning a future in which all traditions are mutually respected.” 

Whilst not an explicit commitment to the holding of a border poll, it surely signifies that both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – likely alongside others in the Dáil regardless of political affiliation – see the potential for one on the horizon. The language surrounding “an island for all traditions” is one that has become increasingly used in recent years precisely because a united Ireland has, particularly in the wake of Brexit, become a topic that even committed unionists have started to accept as a real possibility.

Indeed, regardless of whether a border poll does indeed come along in the next decade, the use of such language surrounding a shared island should be welcomed by all. That said, the absence of any nominees from Northern Ireland on the Taoiseach’s list of appointees to the Seanad certainly raised eyebrows and caused much disappointment amongst those of us who had hoped to see Northern voices represented and heard; to quote one former member, “so much for the shared island” idea.

A new chapter, but will it last? 

Whether this government lasts the full term remains to be seen. Whilst the previous ‘confidence-and-supply’ arrangement may have been fragile it did manage to last its full term. If the two ‘old enemies’ were able to work through that supposedly flimsy arrangement, then surely it stands to reason that they can work together in the more ‘traditional’ format of coalition, especially with the Greens acting as a possible bridge if things were to get heated.

Since the foundation of the state, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have always sought to portray themselves as two opposing forces, two sides of a bitter divide that could never be fully bridged. Putting this history aside, will we now see formal cooperation between the two – as seen for example on Dublin City Council and elsewhere on a local level – become a normal feature on the national stage? Is a merger on the cards, or is that really a bridge too far, despite what we see today? 

As for Sinn Féin, whilst their rhetoric around the supposed ‘illegitimacy’ of the incoming government suggests otherwise, one feels they must be pretty satisfied with the current arrangement. It would be incorrect to portray them as the ‘leaders of the opposition’ in the same way as say, the Labour Party in Westminster. However, it cannot be denied that they see themselves as not simply occupying this role, but also as leaders of a new type of ‘government-in-waiting’. 

It would be premature to say that recent developments represent a ‘new normal’. They have come about through the actions of many old and established faces in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, who have yet to prove that they can work together in government, while Sinn Féin has yet to become an acceptable alternative coalition partner for either of them. But, however long it lasts, it’s very much a new chapter in Irish politics.